Football Analytics

  • June 19, 2017 – How accurate are xG models II: the ‘Big Chance’ Dilemma
    I repeat the xG model test from last year with new contestants and new data. I also discuss the (questionable) influence of the ‘Big Chance’ variable in xG models nowadays.
  • December 9, 2016 – What is the best location to pass from?
    Some positions yield higher xG added values on average than others. How does this influence the xG added score for players? What players overperform their expected xG added score the most? This gives insight into great passers in more defensive positions.
  • November 18, 2016 – Measuring dribbling skill
    Improving the ‘xG added’ model by including dribbles (not only takeons) into the ball progression types. Who is the best dribbler in the Premier League?
  • November 11, 2016 – What is a possession-based model (and why does it matter)?
    Improving the ‘xG added’ model to a possession-based model, and explanation of what this changes and why it’s better.
  • July 2, 2016 – These are the best passers at EURO 2016
    Using the recently created metric ‘xG added’ to try and find the best passers at EURO 2016.
  • May 2, 2016 – Measuring passing skill
    Introducing a new metric called ‘xG added’, which tries to quantify the value a player adds to a team through his passing.
  • April 5, 2016 – Biases in our xG models
    Third and final blog in a series on evaluating xG models. In this part I focus on testing whether existing xG models have certain biases.
  • March 28, 2016 – How good are our xG models?
    Second in a series of three on evaluating xG models. In this part I introduce my way of evaluating a model and apply it to models currently out there.
  • March 14, 2016 – How NOT to evaluate your xG model
    First in a series of three on evaluating xG models. In this part I focus on why the most used method of evaluating an xG model is wrong.
  • Jan 26, 2016 – Introducing My Expected Goals Model
    My first blog on football analytics, in which I introduce my own Expected Goals model, its methodology and shortly evaluate its performance.